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Everything about mathematical predictions for sports
Everything about mathematical predictions for sports


Everything about mathematical predictions for sports

Any sporting event can be translated into numbers. This is used by experienced bettors who place bets using mathematical predictions.

How to learn to make mathematical predictions for sports

The basis of a mathematical forecast for a sporting event is the collection of all possible data about the upcoming match. Exactly what information is required depends on the discipline. For example, in tennis, you need to analyze how the player performs on each surface. For some, the grass is a weak side, and ground or hard is a strong one. If this is football, you need to look not only at the general statistics but also at how the team performs at home and away matches.

There are even special programs that make mathematical predictions for sports on their own, well, it is better not to trust a robot, but to try to learn how to carry out such analyzes on your own. You can analyze the strategy using the example of the football match Chelsea – Tottenham. Bettor mathematicians use different techniques. For example, Bayesian probability, which will determine the chance of each outcome. A more reliable and simpler method for a beginner is the Poisson distribution.

First, you need to define:

  • the strength of the attack;
  • strength of protection.

For statistics, you need to take the results of at least 30 last matches of the team. Then the number of goals must be divided by the number of meetings. Chelsea has an attack power of 1.78. To determine the strength of the defense, it is necessary to divide the number of goals conceded by the number of goals scored. Chelsea Football Club has a value of 0.67. You need to compare the results with the opposing team. If Tottenham has more attack power and less defense, then you need to bet, according to the rules of mathematical prediction, on Hotspur.

To carry out such analysis faster, it is better to use a ready-made calculator that contains Poisson’s formula.

Other ways to make mathematical predictions

Everyone who bets on sports uses mathematical analysis in one way or another, even if unconsciously:

  • determination of the winning amount;
  • calculation of margin;
  • Search for gross rates.

Mathematics is also used to determine the winning amount in case of a successful bet. For example, the odds for Chelsea to win against Tottenham FC is 1.90. If you bet $ 10 on this outcome in the bet365 bookmaker’s office, the user will win $ 19. Of these, $ 9 is net profit.

You can also use in mathematical forecasts:

  • Monte Carlo method;
  • Markov chain;
  • Bayesian probability.

The Monte Carlo method appeared not so long ago – in 2013. Then in this area of ​​Monaco in one of the casinos 26 times in a row the roulette ball fell on black. The essence of the method is that the same outcome, according to the theory of probability, can occur an infinite number of times. In practice, it is not recommended to use it. It is worth remembering that the chance that one of the two outcomes will occur 26 times in a row is 1 in 67108865.

The principles of Markov chains are often used by experienced bettors when it is necessary to determine the probability of a particular outcome of a sporting event. According to this method, the development of events depends on the current state of affairs. Markov chains allow using the mathematical expectation to predict how many points a team will receive. But this method is used only as an auxiliary one, in addition, it is necessary to take into account injuries and disqualification, motivation, and other factors.

Bayesian probability helps to take into account new circumstances in a mathematical forecast. You can change the mathematical expectation if the bettor suddenly finds out that one of the key players on the team is injured.

How to use software for mathematical predictions

To simplify the problem, bettors use special mathematical programs that help to make successful bets on sports:

  • Totalo V2.2 – a utility that determines the most possible total, if you enter two ready-made parameters;
  • ZX16 V2 – you need to enter the number of matches and goals scored by each team for a certain period, and the program itself will determine who with what probability will win;
  • Accurate Score – makes not the most accurate predictions, but allows you to analyze quickly because you need to enter the results of the last seven matches of the team;
  • FootBet V1.0.0 and V2 is a paid utility that makes mathematical predictions on its own; it is enough to indicate which football club you are interested in.

Even the well-known strategy called “sure bets”, which is prohibited by all bookmakers can be considered a mathematical forecast. To make a profit, a bettor needs to use a certain formula. The unit must be divided by the first coefficient, and then the same should be done with the second coefficient. This only works if the match can only have 2 outcomes. The resulting numbers must be added. If the result is less than one, you can get a small profit by placing 2 bets on opposite outcomes of the same event.

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